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Tuesday, January 19, 2021

The Exciting Story of CANOPY GROWTH CORP COM NPV (OTCMKTS:TWMJF)

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CANOPY GROWTH CORP COM NPV (OTCMKTS:TWMJF) is an emblematic stock for this day and age in the Canadian cannabis space. One can easily make strong arguments for extreme price movements in both directions. But ultimately, we think late-to-the-game bears will end up burnt to a crisp at some point with Canopy. We make the case that it will be an interesting opportunity on the bull side, despite – or perhaps even because of – the fact that the stock has all the makings of something that might be tempting to short-side players.

For example among its peers, such as APHRIA INC COM NPV (OTCMKTS:APHQF), AURORA CANNABIS IN COM NPV(OTCMKTS:ACBFF), and ORGANIGRAM HLDGS I COM NPV (OTCMKTS:OGRMF), TWMJF is the only one in that group to still have pink sheet status on the OTC market. The rest are all above that level, and carry full financial information available to US investors on the US OTC exchange. In addition, the company’s financials are still listed as “unaudited”. As long as the price trend for marijuana continues to slide, one might assume this stock, so laden with novice momentum money from the cannabis hype phase, could get mauled.

CANOPY GROWTH CORP COM NPV (OTCMKTS:TWMJF) is one of the bigger growers. The company produces and sells medical marijuana in Canada. It offers dry cannabis and oil products primarily under the Tweed and Bedrocan brands. It also sells its products through online.

According to company materials, “Tweed is the most recognized marijuana production brand in the world. It has built a large and loyal following by focusing on quality products and meaningful customer relationships. Tweed doesn’t just sell marijuana, it facilitates a conversation about a product we’ve all heard about but haven’t met intimately yet. It is approachable and friendly, yet reliable and trusted. As marijuana laws liberalize around the world, Tweed will expand its leading Canadian position around the globe.”

Also from their materials, “Bedrocan is the epitome of medical-grade cannabis. Bedrocan BV pioneered medical cannabis in Holland through decades of selection and refinement, leading to standardized, whole bud cannabis strains that patients can rely on. Bedrocan Canada supplies the same standardized strains to the Canadian market through exclusive licensing rights to the American continents, an arrangement it will also enjoy for all future genetic advancements. Due to its consistency over time, Bedrocan’s strains have been used in clinical research in seven European countries. That commitment to research didn’t stay on the east side of the Atlantic – Bedrocan Canada recently launched one of the largest clinical cannabis studies in the world, the EQUAL Study, to evaluate quality of life before and after medical cannabis use.”

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Recent action has seen another -3% drop over the past week. The stock has been cut in half since its February highs, and the action has been a somewhat insidious grinding downward move. But commodity price trends are as cyclical as it gets. If you think the legalization wave is going to drive down pot prices to zero, you’re sorely mistaken.

The action in these stocks is also likely a picture of the sentiment around the question: “Hey, should we take this money and use it to set up as a cannabis grower?” Last year, that question was a neon flashing light version of the words “Heck Yeah!” And TWMJF went from $2 to $10 in just a few months. Now, the answer to that question is little more nuanced and matured. And so, sure as the sun rises, you can bet we are already putting into place the initial building blocks for a future supply shortage of pot.

The stocks in the producer patch are going to discount that future result, which suggests you want to be building exposure to vehicles that will someday be extremely hype-able and likely carrying plenty of short interest. And TWMJF may well be a decent candidate there.

At this time, carrying a capital value in the market of $900.5M, TWMJF has a significant war chest ($92.8M) of cash on the books, which compares with about $1.1M in total current liabilities. TWMJF is pulling in trailing 12-month revenues of $30.3M. In addition, the company is seeing major top line growth, with y/y quarterly revenues growing at 180.1%. Naturally, these are huge numbers, and they are unaudited, so a solid dose of caution is warranted. “Speculative” means speculative! For continuing coverage on shares of $TWMJF stock, as well as our other hot stock picks, sign up for our free newsletter today and get our next hot stock pick!

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