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Friday, January 28, 2022

Is the Cannabis Space Waking Up? (GTBIF, NUGS, TLRY, CURLF)

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Big tech stocks are overvalued. Banks are overvalued. Airlines are heading towards government assistance to avoid bankruptcy. Restaurant and hotel stocks are teetering on the verge of oblivion.

But one group of stocks no longer in the bullish sentiment spotlight is suddenly putting up triple-digit percentage top-line growth after plummeting to chronic oversold levels for the past two years: cannabis stocks.

Remember those? They were all the rage back in 2016-2018 as analysts ramped up long-term industry growth estimates to nose-bleed levels. Suddenly, it was obvious to everyone at the same time that the sky was the limit because the market was inexorably going “legal”.

Guess what: that narrative is still 100% intact at this point. And the stocks have bled down to book-value type levels, with debt loads driving many players out of existence over recent months. The remaining players on the game board are suddenly looking at reduced competition, lean valuations on a price-to-sales basis, no speculative hype, improving technical postures, monstrous growth trends, and the same long-term promise that made them so popular 24 months ago.

This could be a defining opportunity for speculators in search of growth.

With that in mind, we have gathered a handful of top prospects for more in-depth analysis and discussion: Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF), Cannabis Strategic Ventures (OTCMKTS:NUGS), Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY), and Curaleaf Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:CURLF).

Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF) is a national cannabis cultivator, processor and dispensary operator. It markets products through third party retailers. It also owns and operates a chain of 50 retail stores under the RISE dispensaries name, which has been growing in footprint as one of the fastest expanding dispensary operations in the US market.

The company was actually also named a Best Workplace 2018 by Crain’s Chicago Business.

As a vertically integrated company, GTI manufactures and sells a well-rounded suite of branded cannabis products including flower, concentrates, edibles, and topicals. The company also owns and operates a rapidly growing national chain of retail cannabis stores called RISE(TM) dispensaries.

Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, GTI has seven manufacturing facilities and licenses for 50 retail locations across seven highly regulated U.S. markets. Established in 2014, GTI employs more than 350 people and serves hundreds of thousands of patients and customers each year.

If you’re long this stock, then you’re liking how the stock has responded to the announcement. GTBIF shares have been moving higher over the past week overall, pushing about 5% to the upside on above average trading volume.

Green Thumb Industries Inc (OTCMKTS:GTBIF) pulled in sales of $100.1M in its last reported quarterly financials, representing top line growth of 264.8%. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($60.5M against $144.4M, respectively).

Cannabis Strategic Ventures (OTCMKTS:NUGS) seems to be on a big roll right now. The company just put out word that it will have an expanded inventory ready for sales and shipment next week after a sharp surge in sales in early May left the Company “sold out” every week for the past month for the first time in its history.

This is a name that recently expanded its total production capacity by as much as 150% (ie, more than doubled its cannabis production) likely because of its growing distribution partnerships, which represent the main driver for sales for a company like this.

The California cannabis marketplace is seeing a shortage right now, so producers have the best context possible – unless they aren’t in a position to expand production. NUGS, luckily for its shareholders, has been able to scale up to capitalize on the context and drive what looks to be a pretty dramatic topline growth acceleration.

To wit: Cannabis Strategic Ventures (OTCMKTS:NUGS) is coming off a record month of sales in April, where it booked orders at an annualized pace exceeding $10 million. In all, April sales came in more than 800% higher than the average monthly sales performance logged during the Company’s calendar Q1 – momentum that has carried over into May sales data.

“We have never seen anything like this,” noted Simon Yu, CEO of Cannabis Strategic Ventures. “We booked $100,000 in one day to clear out all of our remaining inventory. We anticipated this dynamic but still underestimated the force of the trend. Too much demand is always the problem you want to have. And we are confident we will be able to translate this into further upside in terms of our top-line growth curve.”

Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY) generated sales of $46.9M, according to information released in the company’s most recent quarterly financial report. That adds up to a sequential quarter-over-quarter growth rate of -8.2% on the top line. In addition, the company has a strong balance sheet, with cash levels far exceeding current liabilities ($96.8M against $92.4M).

The company offers its products in Argentina, Australia, Canada, Chile, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Germany, New Zealand, and South Africa. Tilray, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Nanaimo, Canada.

One of its key subsidiaries is High Park, which was launched to produce and distribute world-class cannabis brands and products for the Canadian market. Based in Toronto and led by a team with deep experience in cannabis and global consumer brands, High Park has secured the exclusive rights to produce and distribute a broad-based portfolio of cannabis brands and products in Canada, subject to applicable laws and regulations.

Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY) is one of the highest-profile names in the space. But if you look under the surface, there are some pretty significant debt-servicing issues to deal with. As long as we are in an expanding growth context for the space, that may not hurt the stock. But during any lull, you can bet this one will be a whipping post.

In total, over the past five days, shares of the stock have dropped by roughly -3% on above-average trading volume. All in all, not a particularly friendly tape, but one that may ultimately present some new opportunities.

Curaleaf Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:CURLF) is one of the biggest players in terms of the US market. The company has the potential to take further market share and could come to dominate the integrated medical and wellness cannabis space for the domestic US market over time, given its success and first-mover breadth.

The stock put in a key low under $3 per share in March, and has since exploded higher over 70%.

Curaleaf Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:CURLF) operates as an integrated medical and wellness cannabis operator in the United States. The Company is the parent of Curaleaf, Inc., a leading vertically integrated cannabis operator in the United States. Headquartered in Wakefield, Massachusetts, Curaleaf, Inc. has a presence in 12 states.

Curaleaf Inc.’s Florida operations were the first in the cannabis industry to receive the Safe Quality Food certification under the Global Food Safety Initiative, setting a new standard of excellence.

The company also provides non-cannabis services to licensed cannabis operators in the areas of cultivation, extraction and production, and retail operations.

CURLF shares have been acting well over the past five days, up about 22% in that timeframe. Shares of the stock have powered higher over the past month, rallying roughly 37% in that time on strong overall action. Curaleaf Holdings Inc (OTCMKTS:CURLF) managed to rope in revenues totaling $99.6M in overall sales during the company’s most recently reported quarterly financial data — a figure that represents a rate of top line growth of 136%, as compared to year-ago data in comparable terms. In addition, the company is battling some balance sheet hurdles, with cash levels struggling to keep up with current liabilities ($54.9M against $137.8M, respectively).

Disclosure: we hold no position in stocks covered here, either long or short, and we have not been compensated for this article.

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